It is the question everyone asks when they are honest. If robots take over more and more work — what happens to the people whose jobs disappear? What happens to the warehouse worker in Hamburg, the cleaner in Zurich, the cashier in Milan, the logistics worker in Warsaw? Most answers to this question are unsatisfying. Optimists point out that every industrial revolution has ultimately created more jobs than it destroyed. Pessimists warn that this time will be different. Politicians promise retraining. Tech billionaires propose universal basic income. No one knows for sure what will work.

This article makes no attempt to know the truth. It tries something else: to honestly list what we know, what we do not know, and which answers are on the table today — including one that is rarely spoken.

What we know

One number is often quoted: an Oxford study from 2013 estimated that 47 percent of all US jobs were at risk of automation. That was a shock number at the time. Today it shows: reality unfolded differently from the study’s projection. Many of the at-risk jobs still exist. Some have been reshaped, others supplemented by new activities.

But this does not mean nothing has happened. McKinsey estimated in 2023 that by 2030 worldwide 400 to 800 million people will need to change profession to remain employable in the automated economy. Those are not small numbers. That is a movement that will directly affect many families.

What we also know: the most strongly affected professions today are those with the lowest educational requirements. Warehouse logistics, cleaning, cash register, machine operation and service activities. These are the professions giving many people a livelihood today, often people without higher education, often with families, often in regions where alternative employers are scarce. When these jobs disappear, not only an income disappears — a way of life disappears.